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Elmonjed

5yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 10 · OR 114

Ascot · John Guest Racing Bengough Stakes (Group 3) · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Resumed his progress to some tune with his reappearance behind him quickly refitted with usual cheekpieces/tongue strap combination when landing Group 2 Minster Stakes at York in May, albeit with a big positional advantage. Caught further back than ideal in Group 3 at Deauville sole start since.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength21%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.9
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newbury 17/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 96 · 6f GF 134 · beat its mark17/05/2025 · OR 96 par17/052OR 962 @ Windsor 30/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 96 · 6f12y GF 142 · beat its mark30/06/2025 · OR 96 par2 @ York 26/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 19 · OR 97 · 6f Goo 132 · beat its mark26/07/2025 · OR 97 par26/072OR 972 @ Goodwood 02/08/2025 · Pos 19th of 27 · OR 96 · 6f Goo 133 · beat its mark02/08/2025 · OR 96 par1 @ Newmarket 22/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 99 · 6f Goo 129 · beat its mark22/08/2025 · OR 99 par22/081OR 991 @ York 07/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 102 · 6f Gd 130 · beat its mark07/09/2025 · OR 102 par1 @ Newmarket 16/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 106 · 6f Gd 135 · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 106 par16/041OR 1061 @ York 13/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 105 · 6f Gd 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 105 par1 @ Deauville 04/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 115 · 5f212y Sft 132 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 115 par4/071OR 115projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-04Deauville14th4th0
2026-05-13York11st1st+0
2026-04-16Newmarket19th9th0
2025-09-07York11st1st−0
2025-08-22Newmarket12nd2nd−0
2025-08-02Goodwood219th21th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/052/0816/044/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 58/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength79%

Delivery trend +3.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/05/20254th5/287%57%-0.30
30/06/20252nd7/491%83%-0.07
26/07/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
02/08/202519th15/261%31%-0.30
22/08/20252nd11/271%88%+0.16
07/09/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
16/04/20269th20/10%38%+0.38
13/05/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
04/07/20264th8/1196%57%-0.39