IvyArcIvyArc
12

Fitzella

3yo Filly · 9-0 · Draw 9 · OR 101

Ascot · John Guest Racing Bengough Stakes (Group 3) · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Group 3 winner as a juvenile but has proven difficult to place this season and looks up against it once more.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength32%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.5
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Ascot 26/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 96 · 6f Goo 128 · beat its mark26/07/2025 · OR 96 par26/071OR 96C0 @ Deauville 24/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 102 · 6f211y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/08/2025 · OR 102 par1 @ Newmarket 27/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 105 · 6f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 105 par27/091OR 1051 @ Newmarket 15/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 105 · 7f Gd 128 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 105 par1 @ Goodwood 02/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 104 · 6f Goo 128 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 104 par2/051OR 1041 @ Royal Ascot 19/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 22 · OR 102 · 6f GF 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 102 par1 @ York 10/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 104 · 6f Goo 126 · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 104 par10/071OR 1041 @ Chester 02/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 104 · 6f17y Gd 122 · beat its mark02/08/2026 · OR 104 par1 @ York 21/08/2026 · Pos 18th of 18 · OR 102 · 5f GS 136 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 102 par21/081OR 102projClass-projected finish: 12th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21York118th18th+0
2026-08-02Chester15th5th−0
2026-07-10York111th11th0
2026-06-19Royal Ascot15th5th+0
2026-05-02Goodwood16th6th−0
2026-04-15Newmarket15th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0715/0410/0721/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 6-12 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength4%

Delivery trend +0.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/07/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
24/08/20252nd13/891%83%-0.08
27/09/20255th11/142%50%+0.08
15/04/20265th15/261%64%+0.03
02/05/20266th2/189%38%-0.52
19/06/20265th50/10%81%+0.81
10/07/202611th11/142%17%-0.25
02/08/20265th11/142%50%+0.08
21/08/202618th80/10%0%0.00