IvyArcIvyArc
5

Jasour

5yo Horse · 9-4 · Draw 8 · OR 101

Ascot · John Guest Racing Bengough Stakes (Group 3) · 6f

#11

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Runner-up in a Doncaster listed race on reappearance in March. Solid efforts back at minor pattern level next 2 outings but more miss than hit since, acknowledging he can have a line put through his belated handicap debut run at Goodwood last time. Has had a breathing operation since.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength40%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 6.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Royal Ascot 17/06/2025 · Pos 10th of 20 · OR 107 · 5f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/06/2025 · OR 107 par17/061OR 1071 @ Royal Ascot 21/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 107 · 6f GF 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/06/2025 · OR 107 par1 @ Newmarket 12/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 106 · 6f GF 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/07/2025 · OR 106 par12/071OR 1061 @ Doncaster 28/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 108 · 6f2y Goo 136 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 108 par1 @ Newmarket 16/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 108 · 6f Gd 135 · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 108 par16/041OR 1081 @ York 13/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 107 · 6f Gd 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 107 par1 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2026 · Pos 17th of 18 · OR 107 · 6f GF 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/06/2026 · OR 107 par20/061OR 1071 @ Newbury 18/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 106 · 6f GF 135 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 106 par2 @ Goodwood 28/07/2026 · Pos 15th of 23 · OR 104 · 5f Goo 138 · below its mark28/07/2026 · OR 104 par28/072OR 104projClass-projected finish: 11th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-28Goodwood215th17th−1
2026-07-18Newbury15th5th0
2026-06-20Royal Ascot117th17th+0
2026-05-13York16th6th+0
2026-04-16Newmarket16th6th0
2026-03-28Doncaster12nd2nd−0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0628/0320/0628/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 12-12 · tight 90/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -8.1% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/06/202510th18/15%53%+0.47
21/06/20256th50/10%62%+0.62
12/07/20256th20/10%62%+0.62
28/03/20262nd6/168%91%+0.22
16/04/20266th9/153%62%+0.09
13/05/20266th10/147%58%+0.11
20/06/202617th50/10%6%+0.06
18/07/20265th16/116%33%+0.18
28/07/202615th10/147%36%-0.11