7
Stratusnine
4yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 11 · OR 102
Ascot · John Guest Racing Bengough Stakes (Group 3) · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Ayr | 2 | 6th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-08-22 | York | 2 | 6th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-08-19 | York | 2 | 6th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Goodwood | 2 | 2nd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-25 | York | 2 | 1st | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Chester | 3 | 3rd | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 58/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength77%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 93% | +0.56 |
| 18/06/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 74% | +0.74 |
| 27/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 01/08/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 96% | +0.96 |
| 19/08/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 75% | +0.20 |
| 22/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 74% | +0.37 |
| 19/09/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 78% | +0.31 |