18
Aalto
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 90
Ascot · BetMGM Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 7f
#11
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Newbury | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-09-04 | Ascot | 3 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Ascot | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Newmarket | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Newmarket | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | York | 3 | 14th | 15th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1847% of fieldRange 2-18 · tight 30/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength43%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/2025 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 27/11/2025 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 36% | -0.24 |
| 09/05/2026 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 13/06/2026 | 14th | 6/1 | 68% | 28% | -0.41 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 88% | -0.02 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 87% | +0.60 |
| 04/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 71% | -0.19 |
| 19/09/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 93% | +0.09 |