IvyArcIvyArc
4

Arctic Dawn

5yo Gelding · 9-10 · Draw 18 · OR 103

Ascot · BetMGM Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 7f

#13

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has improved over 7f this season, scoring at Doncaster in June before doubling his tally at Newmarket in August. Posted a good fourth of 12 in handicap at Newmarket (7f, firm) a week ago but nudged up 1 lb and this is tougher.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 05/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 84 · 7f Sta 142 · beat its mark05/11/2025 · OR 84 par5/114OR 843 @ Lingfield 03/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 92 · 7f1y Std 137 · beat its mark03/12/2025 · OR 92 par3 @ Newmarket 16/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 91 · 7f Goo 132 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 91 par16/053OR 913 @ Doncaster 06/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 91 · 7f6y GF 131 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 91 par2 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2026 · Pos 24th of 28 · OR 100 · 7f GF 133 · below its mark18/06/2026 · OR 100 par18/062OR 1002 @ Ascot 25/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 100 · 7f GF 136 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 100 par2 @ Newmarket 08/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 100 · 7f GF 140 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 100 par8/082OR 1002 @ York 20/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 100 · 7f192y GS 136 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 100 par2 @ Newmarket 26/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 102 · 7f GF 137 · beat its mark26/09/2026 · OR 102 par26/092OR 102projClass-projected finish: 11th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-26Newmarket24th4th0
2026-08-20York28th8th0
2026-08-08Newmarket21st1st0
2026-07-25Ascot26th6th0
2026-06-18Royal Ascot224th24th0
2026-06-06Doncaster31st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/116/068/0826/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1841% of fieldRange 4-17 · tight 48/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength44%

Delivery trend +4.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 18. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/11/20258th9/276%46%-0.30
03/12/20255th8/158%56%-0.02
16/05/20263rd16/116%80%+0.64
06/06/20261st18/581%100%+0.19
18/06/202624th40/10%15%+0.15
25/07/20266th28/10%67%+0.67
08/08/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
20/08/20268th28/10%46%+0.46
26/09/20264th11/271%73%+0.02