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11

Desert Shadow

4yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 6 · OR 96

Ascot · BetMGM Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 7f

#8

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has found his niche since visored and dropped to 7f, bagging handicaps at Lingfield and Sandown this summer. Ran well off 9 lb higher when second of 8 in handicap back at Sandown (soft) last time. Another in the picture.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength14%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.6
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 12/06/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 80 · 1m4f Goo 135 · below its mark12/06/2025 · OR 80 par12/064OR 804 @ Sandown 07/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 79 · 1m1f209y Goo 130 · beat its mark07/08/2025 · OR 79 par4 @ Beverley 30/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 80 · 1m1f207y Goo 130 · beat its mark30/08/2025 · OR 80 par30/084OR 80C0 @ Meydan 13/03/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR - · 1m4f11y Gd 1264 @ Southwell 23/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 84 · 1m3f23y Std 134 · below its mark23/04/2026 · OR 84 par23/044OR 844 @ Redcar 26/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 82 · 7f219y Goo 133 · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 82 par3 @ Lingfield 15/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 82 · 7f135y GF 131 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 82 par15/073OR 824 @ Sandown 06/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 85 · 7f Goo 142 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 85 par3 @ Sandown 29/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 94 · 7f GS 139 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 94 par29/083OR 94projClass-projected finish: 15th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Sandown32nd3rd−1
2026-08-06Sandown41st3rd−2
2026-07-15Lingfield31st2nd−1
2026-05-26Redcar42nd4th−2
2026-04-23Southwell45th7th−2
2026-03-13Meydan?12th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0613/0315/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1853% of fieldRange 4-18 · tight 43/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength38%

Delivery trend +2.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 18. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/06/20259th11/142%27%-0.15
07/08/20252nd11/486%83%-0.02
30/08/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
13/03/202612th11/271%0%-0.71
23/04/20265th9/488%20%-0.68
26/05/20262nd10/382%80%-0.02
15/07/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
06/08/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
29/08/20262nd2/189%86%-0.04