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17

Hawksbill

4yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 15 · OR 92

Ascot · BetMGM Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 7f

#15

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#15

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winless since 2024 (for Hugo Palmer) but is knocking on the door for his current yard, travelling strongly long way when second of 14 in handicap at Ayr (1m, heavy) 2 weeks ago. Must enter calculations off an unchanged mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.1
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Meydan 16/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR - · 1m Gd 13316/01C?C0 @ Meydan 06/02/2026 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR - · 1m1f 129C0 @ Meydan 13/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR - · 7f Gd 13013/02C?1 @ Meydan 06/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 94 · 7f Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 94 par3 @ Newmarket 25/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 94 · 7f Goo 134 · below its mark25/06/2026 · OR 94 par25/063OR 943 @ Goodwood 29/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 20 · OR 93 · 7f Goo 134 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 93 par2 @ Goodwood 31/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 18 · OR 93 · 1m Goo 126 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 93 par31/072OR 932 @ York 20/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 93 · 7f192y GS 123 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 93 par2 @ Ayr 19/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 92 · 1m Hvy 132 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 92 par19/092OR 92projClass-projected finish: 7th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Ayr22nd2nd0
2026-08-20York24th4th0
2026-07-31Goodwood27th7th0
2026-07-29Goodwood35th6th−1
2026-06-25Newmarket37th8th−1
2026-03-06Meydan110th8th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/016/0331/0719/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1835% of fieldRange 1-18 · tight 21/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength53%

Delivery trend +5.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 18. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/01/20265th20/10%69%+0.69
06/02/202612th6/168%21%-0.47
13/02/20266th11/142%62%+0.19
06/03/202610th33/10%25%+0.25
25/06/20267th9/153%25%-0.28
29/07/20265th9/153%79%+0.26
31/07/20267th25/10%65%+0.65
20/08/20264th28/10%77%+0.77
19/09/20262nd15/261%92%+0.32