8
Hickory
8yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 9 · OR 99
Ascot · BetMGM Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Ascot | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Newmarket | 3 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Ascot | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Newmarket | 3 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Sandown | 3 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1888% of fieldRange 1-13 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength70%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 04/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 93% | +0.40 |
| 09/05/2026 | 18th | 12/1 | 37% | 37% | +0.00 |
| 28/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 18/06/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 09/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 14/08/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 56% | -0.10 |
| 04/09/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |