14
Machadadorp
3yo Filly · 9-1 · Draw 13 · OR 96
Ascot · BetMGM Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | York | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Goodwood | 3 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Newmarket | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Wetherby | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-30 | Chester | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-01 | Ascot | 2 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1882% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength85%
Delivery trend +2.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 30/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 15/06/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 88% | +0.05 |
| 28/07/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 74% | 0.00 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |