IvyArcIvyArc
10

Mezcala

4yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 16 · OR 97

Ascot · BetMGM Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 7f

#6

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Much improved this season, winning the Spring Mile at Doncaster (1m) and Buckingham Palace over C&D at the Royal Meeting in June. Not at all discredited when sixth of 17 in handicap at Doncaster (1m, good) 3 weeks ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Nottingham 31/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 1m75y GS 12931/0755 @ Lingfield 21/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 1m1y Std 1314 @ Haydock 06/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 84 · 1m37y Gd 134 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 84 par6/094OR 843 @ Newmarket 26/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 85 · 1m1f GF 130 · beat its mark26/09/2025 · OR 85 par2 @ Doncaster 28/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 22 · OR 85 · 1m Goo 133 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 85 par28/032OR 852 @ Newbury 16/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 93 · 1m Goo 126 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 93 par2 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 28 · OR 94 · 7f GF 127 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 94 par18/062OR 942 @ Ascot 25/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 98 · 7f GF 134 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 98 par2 @ Doncaster 12/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 17 · OR 98 · 1m Goo 133 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 98 par12/092OR 98projClass-projected finish: 10th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Doncaster26th6th0
2026-07-25Ascot212th12th0
2026-06-18Royal Ascot21st1st0
2026-05-16Newbury23rd3rd0
2026-03-28Doncaster21st1st0
2025-09-26Newmarket37th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/0726/0918/0612/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1871% of fieldRange 4-15 · tight 56/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength52%

Delivery trend -1.3% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 18.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/07/20252nd11/486%88%+0.02
21/08/20251st10/1195%100%+0.05
06/09/20252nd9/488%86%-0.02
26/09/20257th7/282%50%-0.32
28/03/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
16/05/20263rd11/486%86%+0.00
18/06/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
25/07/202612th9/276%27%-0.50
12/09/20266th13/266%69%+0.03