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9

Moonfall

3yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 11 · OR 101

Ascot · BetMGM Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 7f

#3

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained first handicap win in Britannia (1m) here at the Royal Meeting in June. Resumed his progress after a break when runner-up in 1m handicaps back here and at Doncaster, doing well to pull clear of the rest on latter occasion having suffered poor run 1f out. Weighted to go close nudged up 2 lb.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.7
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newmarket 17/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 5f Gd 13317/0442 @ Newmarket 04/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 5f GF 1304 @ Newbury 12/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 6f110y Goo 13312/0641 @ Newmarket 12/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 90 · 7f GF 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/07/2025 · OR 90 par2 @ Chester 07/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 90 · 7f127y Gd 128 · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 90 par7/052OR 902 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 30 · OR 90 · 1m GF 122 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 90 par2 @ Newmarket 11/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 97 · 1m GF 133 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 97 par11/072OR 972 @ Ascot 04/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 97 · 1m Goo 128 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 97 par2 @ Doncaster 12/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 17 · OR 99 · 1m Goo 129 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 99 par12/092OR 99projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Doncaster22nd2nd0
2026-09-04Ascot22nd2nd0
2026-07-11Newmarket24th4th0
2026-06-18Royal Ascot21st1st0
2026-05-07Chester25th5th0
2025-07-12Newmarket17th5th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0412/0711/0712/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1894% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength94%

Delivery trend +4.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 18. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/04/20252nd10/382%80%-0.02
04/05/20253rd10/1195%60%-0.35
12/06/20251st8/1196%100%+0.04
12/07/20257th25/10%0%0.00
07/05/20265th11/142%64%+0.22
18/06/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
11/07/20264th10/382%57%-0.25
04/09/20262nd15/261%92%+0.31
12/09/20262nd11/271%94%+0.23