1
Poet Master
6yo Gelding · 9-12 · Draw 8 · OR 105
Ascot · BetMGM Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▼1
Strength57%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.0
Today: 2
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Goodwood | 1 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-06-27 | Newcastle | 1 | 7th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Epsom Downs | 1 | 3rd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Haydock | 1 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Thirsk | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-10 | Newmarket | 1 | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1865% of fieldRange 10-18 · tight 67/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2024 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |
| 29/03/2025 | 9th | 13/8 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 14/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 10/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 10/04/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 09/05/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 71% | +0.29 |
| 27/06/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 28/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |