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4yo Gelding · 9-1 · Draw 7 · OR 94

Ascot · BetMGM Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 7f

#18

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#18

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful in first-time cheekpieces at Carlisle (6f) in May. Best effort in 3 strong handicaps since when a respectable tenth of 20 in Constantine at York (6f, good to soft) in August. Mark is easing but he still needs to step forward.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2025 · Pos 9th of 24 · OR 93 · 5f GF 128 · beat its mark20/06/2025 · OR 93 par20/062OR 932 @ Newmarket 10/07/2025 · Pos 10th of 17 · OR 92 · 6f GF 123 · beat its mark10/07/2025 · OR 92 par3 @ Haydock 27/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 87 · 6f Goo 135 · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 87 par27/093OR 872 @ Doncaster 08/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 22 · OR 93 · 6f2y Hvy 129 · beat its mark08/11/2025 · OR 93 par2 @ Newmarket 15/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 93 · 6f Gd 128 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 93 par15/042OR 933 @ Carlisle 30/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 92 · 5f182y Goo 137 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 92 par2 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 27 · OR 92 · 6f GF 127 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 92 par20/062OR 922 @ Goodwood 01/08/2026 · Pos 16th of 27 · OR 98 · 6f GF 128 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 98 par2 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 20 · OR 96 · 6f Goo 130 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 96 par22/082OR 96projClass-projected finish: 13th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22York210th10th0
2026-08-01Goodwood216th16th0
2026-06-20Royal Ascot28th8th0
2026-05-30Carlisle31st2nd−1
2026-04-15Newmarket29th9th0
2025-11-08Doncaster27th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/068/1120/0622/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 1812% of fieldRange 7-15 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength40%

Delivery trend +6.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 16th of 18. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/06/20259th7/282%65%-0.16
10/07/202510th9/153%44%-0.09
27/09/20251st15/890%100%+0.10
08/11/20257th9/276%71%-0.05
15/04/20269th11/271%33%-0.38
30/05/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
20/06/20268th12/137%73%+0.36
01/08/202616th20/10%42%+0.42
22/08/202610th14/126%53%+0.26