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13

River King

4yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 2 · OR 95

Ascot · BetMGM Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 7f

#14

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Low-mileage 4-y-o doubled his tally when making all at Newbury (1m, firm) in June. Only twice raced since and has run well when fifth in Buckingham Palace over C&D at the Royal Meeting in June and when fourth of 17 under more patient tactics at Doncaster (1m, good) 3 weeks ago. One to consider.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 07/08/2024 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR - · 7f Sta 1307/0844 @ Doncaster 25/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 7f6y Goo 1295 @ Nottingham 09/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 1m75y Goo 1339/0554 @ Chelmsford City 22/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 85 · 1m Std 130 · beat its mark22/05/2025 · OR 85 par5 @ Windsor 16/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 85 · 1m2f Goo 130 · beat its mark16/06/2025 · OR 85 par16/065OR 854 @ Chepstow 21/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 84 · 1m2f GS 134 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 84 par4 @ Newbury 01/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 87 · 1m GF 137 · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 87 par1/064OR 872 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 28 · OR 95 · 7f GF 128 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 95 par2 @ Doncaster 12/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 17 · OR 95 · 1m Goo 130 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 95 par12/092OR 95projClass-projected finish: 8th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Doncaster24th4th0
2026-06-18Royal Ascot25th5th0
2026-06-01Newbury41st3rd−2
2026-05-21Chepstow42nd4th−2
2025-06-16Windsor51st5th−3
2025-05-22Chelmsford City43rd5th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0822/051/0612/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1859% of fieldRange 1-14 · tight 48/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength62%

Delivery trend -0.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 18.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/08/20244th40/10%75%+0.75
25/04/20253rd11/486%82%-0.04
09/05/20252nd5/696%91%-0.05
22/05/20253rd15/890%86%-0.04
16/06/20251st4/1198%100%+0.02
21/05/20262nd8/1397%80%-0.17
01/06/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
18/06/20265th14/126%85%+0.59
12/09/20264th7/163%81%+0.18