IvyArcIvyArc
16

The Fingal Raven

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 12 · OR 93

Ascot · BetMGM Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 7f

#12

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Doubled his tally in handicap at Meydan (1m) in January. Right back to form of late, runner-up over C&D before third of 12 at Newmarket (7f, firm) a week ago. No forlorn hope in a headgear change (first-time cheekpieces).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength24%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Meydan 13/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR - · 7f Gd 13113/02C?C0 @ Meydan 13/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR - · 1m Gd 1262 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2026 · Pos 16th of 28 · OR 95 · 7f GF 128 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 95 par18/062OR 952 @ Newmarket 11/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 95 · 7f GF 130 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 95 par3 @ Goodwood 29/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 20 · OR 93 · 7f Goo 134 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 93 par29/073OR 932 @ Goodwood 29/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 93 · 7f GS 127 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 93 par2 @ Ascot 05/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 92 · 7f Goo 127 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 92 par5/092OR 923 @ Newbury 19/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR 93 · 7f GF 138 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 93 par2 @ Newmarket 26/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 92 · 7f GF 127 · beat its mark26/09/2026 · OR 92 par26/092OR 92projClass-projected finish: 9th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-26Newmarket23rd3rd0
2026-09-19Newbury37th8th−1
2026-09-05Ascot22nd2nd0
2026-08-29Goodwood29th9th0
2026-07-29Goodwood33rd4th−1
2026-07-11Newmarket29th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0211/075/0926/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1829% of fieldRange 5-17 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength41%

Delivery trend +1.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 18.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/02/20265th10/147%69%+0.22
13/03/20265th7/163%69%+0.06
18/06/202616th66/10%44%+0.44
11/07/20269th28/10%33%+0.33
29/07/20263rd16/116%89%+0.74
29/08/20269th33/10%20%+0.20
05/09/20262nd16/116%86%+0.70
19/09/20267th16/116%60%+0.44
26/09/20263rd4/179%82%+0.03