6
Thunder Call
3yo Colt · 9-7 · Draw 1 · OR 102
Ascot · BetMGM Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
85%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Ascot | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ascot | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Newmarket | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | York | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Kempton | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-11-08 | Doncaster | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 18100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 81/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength92%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10/2025 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 10% | -0.06 |
| 08/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 04/05/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 08/08/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 88% | -0.02 |
| 05/09/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |