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3

Two Tribes

5yo Gelding · 9-10 · Draw 5 · OR 103

Ascot · BetMGM Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) · 7f

#10

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Stewards Cup winner of 2025 who finished runner-up in his bid for back-to-back Internationals over C&D in July. Again ran up to his best over C&D when third to Thunder Call since before being well held in the mud in Ayr Gold Cup 2 weeks ago. No surprise to see him bounce back returned here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength24%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.3 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 2
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC1 @ Meydan 28/02/2026 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR 104 · 6f Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/02/2026 · OR 104 par28/02C1OR 1041 @ Meydan 06/03/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 104 · 7f Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/03/2026 · OR 104 par2 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 27 · OR 103 · 6f GF 133 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 103 par20/062OR 1032 @ Newmarket 11/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 103 · 7f GF 138 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 103 par2 @ Ascot 25/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 102 · 7f GF 138 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 102 par25/072OR 1022 @ Goodwood 01/08/2026 · Pos 27th of 27 · OR 102 · 6f GF 132 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 102 par2 @ Ascot 08/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 104 · 7f213y GF 139 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 104 par8/082OR 1042 @ Ascot 05/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 103 · 7f Goo 138 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 103 par2 @ Ayr 19/09/2026 · Pos 12th of 24 · OR 103 · 6f Hvy 131 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 103 par19/092OR 103projClass-projected finish: 14th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Ayr212th12th0
2026-09-05Ascot23rd3rd0
2026-08-08Ascot25th5th0
2026-08-01Goodwood227th27th0
2026-07-25Ascot22nd2nd0
2026-07-11Newmarket27th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0211/078/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1824% of fieldRange 4-18 · tight 43/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength18%

Delivery trend -0.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 18.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/02/202611th5/174%29%-0.45
06/03/202611th16/116%17%+0.01
20/06/202612th33/10%58%+0.58
11/07/20267th10/147%50%+0.03
25/07/20262nd28/10%93%+0.93
01/08/202627th11/271%0%-0.71
08/08/20265th11/271%56%-0.15
05/09/20263rd7/282%71%-0.10
19/09/202612th12/137%52%+0.15