1
Adrestia
4yo Filly · 9-12 · Draw 8 · OR 96
Ascot · Ascot Iron Stand Membership Handicap · 5f
#6
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.9 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Doncaster | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-28 | Goodwood | 2 | 17th | 17th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Ascot | 2 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Redcar | 3 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Windsor | 2 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-21 | Southwell | 2 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 59/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength69%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 70% | -0.12 |
| 29/07/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 95% | +0.18 |
| 30/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 88% | -0.01 |
| 21/09/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 62% | -0.12 |
| 18/05/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 20/06/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 13% | -0.40 |
| 11/07/2026 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 28/07/2026 | 17th | 9/1 | 53% | 27% | -0.25 |
| 13/09/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 93% | +0.33 |