5
Ancient State
4yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 12 · OR 90
Ascot · Ascot Iron Stand Membership Handicap · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Haydock | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | Doncaster | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Doncaster | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-27 | Windsor | 3 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-10 | York | 4 | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-06-27 | Lingfield | 5 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 59/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength96%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 89% | -0.01 |
| 09/06/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 43% | -0.40 |
| 19/06/2026 | 1st | 22/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 10/07/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 64% | +0.22 |
| 27/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 13/09/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 26/09/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |