12
Atticum
3yo Colt · 8-13 · Draw 4 · OR 83
Ascot · Ascot Iron Stand Membership Handicap · 5f
#12
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Sandown | 4 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-06-20 | Redcar | 4 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-06-01 | Windsor | 3 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Sandown | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Yarmouth | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-10-02 | Nottingham | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 9-14 · tight 71/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength2%
Delivery trend -13.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09/2025 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 02/10/2025 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 21/10/2025 | 1st | 7/5 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 24/04/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 01/06/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 29/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |