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10

Bone Marra

3yo Gelding · 9-1 · Draw 2 · OR 85

Ascot · Ascot Iron Stand Membership Handicap · 5f

#10

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

All 3 wins on all-weather, the latest at Southwell (6f) in June. Placed over 7f at Wolverhampton/Lingfield next 2 outings, before matching that form back on turf (soft ground) when third of 24 in the Ayr Bronze Cup. Drop back in trip might not be ideal, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength17%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Salisbury 23/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 81 · 6f Goo 135 · beat its mark23/07/2025 · OR 81 par23/074OR 814 @ Leicester 10/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR 80 · 7f Goo 130 · below its mark10/08/2025 · OR 80 par4 @ Wolverhampton 08/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 78 · 7f36y Std 128 · beat its mark08/11/2025 · OR 78 par8/114OR 784 @ Lingfield 28/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 83 · 6f1y Std 133 · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 83 par2 @ Goodwood 23/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 17 · OR 84 · 7f Gd 116 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 84 par23/052OR 844 @ Southwell 18/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 83 · 6f16y Std 133 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 83 par4 @ Wolverhampton 17/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 85 · 7f36y Std 135 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 85 par17/074OR 854 @ Lingfield 11/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 86 · 7f1y Std 136 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 86 par2 @ Ayr 18/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 24 · OR 86 · 6f Sft 134 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 86 par18/092OR 86projClass-projected finish: 5th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Ayr23rd3rd0
2026-08-11Lingfield43rd5th−2
2026-07-17Wolverhampton42nd4th−2
2026-06-18Southwell41st3rd−2
2026-05-23Goodwood214th14th0
2026-04-28Lingfield42nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0728/0417/0718/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1342% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 59/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength95%

Delivery trend +6.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/07/20253rd9/276%78%+0.01
10/08/20253rd9/276%0%-0.76
08/11/20251st10/147%100%+0.53
28/04/20262nd11/142%89%+0.47
23/05/202614th28/10%19%+0.19
18/06/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
17/07/20262nd5/287%88%+0.01
11/08/20263rd2/189%67%-0.23
18/09/20263rd33/10%91%+0.91