IvyArcIvyArc
14

Fantasy Master

8yo Gelding · 8-4 · Draw 14 · OR 74

Ascot · Ascot Iron Stand Membership Handicap · 5f

#9

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Without a win this season but was beaten only a head by Maelstrom at Newmarket in August. Has added to a patchy record since, though, below par at Yarmouth next time before just edged out at Doncaster 20 days ago. Back up in grade here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Ascot 04/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 72 · 5f Sft 114 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 72 par4/102OR 724 @ Chelmsford City 16/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 71 · 6f Std 124 · beat its mark16/10/2025 · OR 71 par5 @ Chelmsford City 26/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 69 · 6f Std 129 · beat its mark26/11/2025 · OR 69 par26/115OR 695 @ Chelmsford City 04/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 69 · 6f Std 134 · beat its mark04/12/2025 · OR 69 par4 @ Ascot 09/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 18 · OR 71 · 6f Goo 126 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 71 par9/054OR 714 @ Sandown 12/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 71 · 5f10y Goo 126 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 71 par4 @ Newmarket 22/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 70 · 5f Gd 130 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 70 par22/084OR 703 @ Yarmouth 30/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 72 · 5f42y GS 120 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Doncaster 13/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 72 · 5f3y Gd 130 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 72 par13/094OR 72projClass-projected finish: 11th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Doncaster42nd4th−2
2026-08-30Yarmouth33rd4th−1
2026-08-22Newmarket42nd4th−2
2026-06-12Sandown48th10th−2
2026-05-09Ascot43rd5th−2
2025-12-04Chelmsford City51st5th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/104/1222/0813/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 3-14 · tight 42/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength39%

Delivery trend -1.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/10/20256th11/142%50%+0.08
16/10/20255th9/153%50%-0.03
26/11/20255th11/142%60%+0.18
04/12/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
09/05/20263rd18/15%88%+0.83
12/06/20268th11/142%13%-0.30
22/08/20262nd13/266%83%+0.18
30/08/20263rd13/266%33%-0.32
13/09/20262nd11/271%89%+0.18