4
Havana Hurricane
3yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 11 · OR 92
Ascot · Ascot Iron Stand Membership Handicap · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
75%
Place Prob
47%
Rank
#1
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength50%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.5
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Ascot | 2 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ascot | 2 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Ascot | 2 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Sandown | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 18th | 16th | +2 |
| 2026-05-16 | Newbury | 1 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 7-14 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength4%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 12/09/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 27/09/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 38% | -0.26 |
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 19/06/2026 | 18th | 50/1 | 0% | 19% | +0.19 |
| 03/07/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 11/07/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 08/08/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 13% | -0.30 |
| 05/09/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |