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11

Maelstrom

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 1 · OR 84

Ascot · Ascot Iron Stand Membership Handicap · 5f

#2

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

12%

Place Prob

19%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won first 3 handicaps (all at 6f) for William Haggas last year and recorded first success for current yard at Newmarket (5f) in August. Followed up over this C&D, before not ideally drawn at Doncaster 20 days ago. Stall one to contend with again but a strong pace promises to suit. Major player.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Haydock 24/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 80 · 6f Gd 133 · beat its mark24/05/2025 · OR 80 par24/054OR 802 @ York 14/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 18 · OR 84 · 6f Goo 118 · beat its mark14/06/2025 · OR 84 par3 @ Newbury 24/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 18 · OR 84 · 6f Sft 131 · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 84 par24/103OR 843 @ Newcastle 17/11/2025 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 83 · 6f Std 129 · below its mark17/11/2025 · OR 83 par3 @ Windsor 27/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 81 · 6f12y GF 131 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 81 par27/073OR 814 @ Newmarket 15/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 80 · 6f GF 138 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Newmarket 22/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 78 · 5f Gd 138 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 78 par22/084OR 782 @ Ascot 05/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 81 · 5f Goo 120 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 81 par3 @ Doncaster 13/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR 84 · 5f3y Gd 132 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 84 par13/093OR 84projClass-projected finish: 6th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Doncaster37th8th−1
2026-09-05Ascot21st1st0
2026-08-22Newmarket41st3rd−2
2026-08-15Newmarket45th7th−2
2026-07-27Windsor38th9th−1
2025-11-17Newcastle313th14th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0517/1122/0813/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 59/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength90%

Delivery trend +6.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/05/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
14/06/20257th13/266%65%-0.01
24/10/20253rd7/282%88%+0.07
17/11/202513th10/382%0%-0.82
27/07/20268th16/116%42%+0.26
15/08/20265th18/15%56%+0.50
22/08/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
05/09/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
13/09/20267th8/158%60%+0.02