8
Rosario
5yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 9 · OR 88
Ascot · Ascot Iron Stand Membership Handicap · 5f
#7
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Doncaster | 2 | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Sandown | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-10 | Windsor | 2 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Newmarket | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-22 | Windsor | 3 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Goodwood | 2 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 9-14 · tight 73/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength6%
Delivery trend +3.3% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 10th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2025 | 10th | 9/2 | 76% | 18% | -0.58 |
| 21/11/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 14/04/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 29% | -0.35 |
| 01/05/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 30% | -0.12 |
| 22/06/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 10/07/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 73% | +0.10 |
| 10/08/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 60% | +0.18 |
| 29/08/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 12/09/2026 | 16th | 17/2 | 55% | 25% | -0.30 |