1
Mystrix
2yo Colt · 8-11 · Draw 1 · OR 92
Belmont Park · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
56%
Place Prob
42%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼3
Strength62%
What the class read says
Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.1
Today:
Class gap: +2.9
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | -5th | +6 |
| 2026-08-08 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 71/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +22.1% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 89% | +0.03 |
| 06/09/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |