5
Cactus Closer
2yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 5 · OR 66
Belmont Park · Race 10 - Futurity Stakes - Grade 3 · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲5
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 10.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -5.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 8th | −5 |
| 2026-07-25 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 14th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +75.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 30/08/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |