4
Luminous Beauty
2yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 4 · OR 78
Belmont Park · Race 10 - Futurity Stakes - Grade 3 · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
51%
Place Prob
35%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲4
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 2.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.3
Today:
Class gap: -3.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-08-02 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 10th | −4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 8th | −5 |
| 2026-05-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 9th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 28/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength94%
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 86% | +0.59 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 03/07/2026 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 20% | -0.73 |
| 02/08/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 88% | +0.72 |
| 30/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 90% | +0.24 |