11
Dover Street
2yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 11 · OR 102
Belmont Park · Race 11 - Pilgrim Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▲2
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Sandown | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-08-21 | York | 2 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-08-05 | Kempton | 3 | 5th | 8th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 77/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +46.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |
| 21/08/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |