5
Pass On By
2yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 5 · OR 70
Belmont Park · Race 11 - Pilgrim Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲6
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 11.2 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -5.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
| 2026-08-22 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 15th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 7-7 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength45%
Delivery trend +5.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 05/09/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |