Goodproblemtohave

2yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 2 · OR 75

Belmont Park · Race 2 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

88%

Place Prob

58%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▬

Strength33%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +0.5

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-06	Saratoga	?	7th	6th	+1	3.6
2026-07-17	Saratoga	?	3rd	2nd	+1	7.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 11-11 · tight 71/100

▬ RUNS TO FORM

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -83.9% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
17/07/2026	3rd	12/1	37%	78%	+0.41
06/08/2026	7th	9/2	76%	33%	-0.43