IvyArcIvyArc
10

Poll Position

2yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 10 · OR 64

Belmont Park · Race 2 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

11%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Colonial Downs 26/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 5f110y Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS26/06C6C6 @ Colonial Downs 22/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 59 · 5f Gd 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 59 par22/07C6OR 59C6 @ Colonial Downs 22/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 63 · 5f110y Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 63 par22/08C6OR 63projClass-projected finish: 1st of 2
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Colonial Downs?2nd1st+1
2026-07-22Colonial Downs?2nd1st+1
2026-06-26Colonial Downs?5th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0622/0722/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 74/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +48.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/06/20265th6/492%20%-0.72
22/07/20262nd5/174%86%+0.12
22/08/20262nd7/163%88%+0.24