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Harper's Corner

2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 3 · OR 98

Belmont Park · Race 6 - Matron Stakes - Grade 3 · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

79%

Place Prob

53%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength8%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 1.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.6
Today:
Class gap: -3.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Laurel Park 12/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 5f Fas 12012/06C6C5 @ Saratoga 03/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 91 · 6f 122 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 91 par3/07C5OR 91C0 @ Saratoga 05/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 98 · 7f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 98 par5/09C?OR 98projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Saratoga?2nd2nd+0
2026-07-03Saratoga?1st6th−4
2026-06-12Laurel Park?1st8th−5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/063/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 39/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength100%

Delivery trend -7.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/06/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
03/07/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
05/09/20262nd5/174%83%+0.10