Bittersweet Memory

2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 7 · OR 84

Belmont Park · Race 7 - Miss Grillo Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▲6

Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: -5.6

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-28	Saratoga	?	1st	8th	−6	2.3
2026-08-01	Saratoga	?	3rd	10th	−6	1.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 71/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +34.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
01/08/2026	3rd	10/1	47%	60%	+0.13
28/08/2026	1st	9/1	53%	100%	+0.47