Runaway Bride

2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 1 · OR 92

Belmont Park · Race 7 - Miss Grillo Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▲3

Strength19%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C3.1

Today:

Class gap: -2.7

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-12	Woodbine	?	5th	5th	+0	5.2
2026-07-24	Saratoga	?	1st	8th	−6	2.3

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 8-8 · tight 71/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength4%

Delivery trend -66.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
24/07/2026	1st	12/1	37%	100%	+0.63
12/09/2026	5th	7/1	63%	60%	-0.03