1
Johnny Hockey
2yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 1 · OR 69
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Champagne Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲6
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 10.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -5.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 10th | −4 |
| 2026-08-09 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
| 2026-07-18 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 11th | −6 |
| 2026-07-11 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 11th | −6 |
| 2026-06-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 10th | −6 |
| 2026-06-18 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 13th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 3-5 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength36%
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 25/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 09/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 27/08/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |