4
Libby Lloyd
2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 4 · OR 96
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Frizette Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
8/5
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
90%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲6
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 1.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -5.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 50/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength95%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |