6
Rum Twist
2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 6 · OR 79
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Frizette Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲6
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 9.3 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -5.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
| 2026-08-08 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 11th | −6 |
| 2026-07-11 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 9th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 51/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength97%
Delivery trend -10.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 05/09/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |