7
Jazzman Idef
7yo Gelding · 8-13
Cabourg · Prix De Brecey - Monte · 1m 5f 147y
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Cabourg | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Caen | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Argentan | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Meslay Du Maine | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-27 | Cordemais | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-02-05 | Vincennes | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 69/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength98%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 91% | +0.49 |
| 08/12/2025 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 18% | -0.19 |
| 12/01/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 89% | +0.03 |
| 05/02/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 27/02/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 82% | +0.21 |
| 09/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 82% | +0.34 |
| 11/05/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 73% | -0.04 |
| 27/05/2026 | 12th | 13/2 | 66% | 27% | -0.39 |
| 16/09/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 92% | +0.76 |