15
New Deal Du Roen
3yo Gelding · 9-6
Cabourg · Prix De Villebon - Monte · 1m 5f 147y
#11
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 6
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Vincennes | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-08-18 | Cabourg | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Cabourg | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Enghien | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Caen | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Caen | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1550% of fieldRange 2-8 · tight 65/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength73%
Delivery trend +12.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/03/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 30/03/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 45% | -0.02 |
| 23/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 28/07/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 18/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 77% | +0.51 |