13
Nico Arctic
3yo Gelding · 9-6
Cabourg · Prix De Villebon - Monte · 1m 5f 147y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Cabourg | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Vire | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Angers | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-04 | Mauquenchy | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1579% of fieldRange 1-15 · tight 20/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength35%
Delivery trend -19.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/04/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 63% | -0.01 |
| 18/05/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 90% | +0.74 |
| 19/09/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |