14
Malavita Rosa
4yo Filly · 0-0
Cabourg · Prix De Cernay - Attele · 1m 5f 147y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
88%
Place Prob
69%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 1.5)
Highest class: 6
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Vire | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Le Mont-Saint-Michel | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Caen | 6 | −1 | ||
| 2026-05-22 | Graignes | 6 | −1 | ||
| 2025-12-12 | Graignes | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1680% of fieldRange 7-7 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength59%
Delivery trend -20.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 06/09/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 90% | +0.01 |