8
Kabalva
6yo Mare · 0-0
Cabourg · Prix D'isigny-sur-mer - Attele · 1m 5f 147y
#10
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Laval | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Cabourg | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-22 | Caen | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Amiens | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Le Mans | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-30 | Vincennes | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1633% of fieldRange 4-16 · tight 45/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength40%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 18/02/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 17/03/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 07/04/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 30/04/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 21/05/2026 | 5th | 66/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 08/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 22/06/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 10/09/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |