13
Kerosen Du Gers
6yo Gelding · 0-0
Cabourg · Prix D'isigny-sur-mer - Attele · 1m 5f 147y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Pornichet | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Vincennes | 3 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-05-13 | Vincennes | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-13 | Argentan | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Vire | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Nantes | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1680% of fieldRange 2-11 · tight 60/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength62%
Delivery trend -7.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/2025 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 24/11/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 03/12/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 06/01/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 92% | +0.18 |
| 21/02/2026 | 2nd | 4/6 | 96% | 93% | -0.03 |
| 01/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 94% | +0.07 |
| 13/04/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 19/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 19/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 94% | +0.06 |