13
Kerlaz D'ave
6yo Gelding · 0-0
Cabourg · Prix De Longvillers - Attele · 1m 5f 147y
#14
Rank
Odds
35/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Cabourg | 5 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-06-30 | Le Mont-Saint-Michel | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Agen | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Amiens | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Reims | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Reims | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 167% of fieldRange 11-16 · tight 75/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 15th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 87% | +0.87 |
| 23/10/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 12/03/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 88% | +0.05 |
| 08/06/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 93% | +0.56 |
| 17/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 93% | +0.09 |
| 30/06/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 30% | -0.46 |
| 28/08/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |