4
Bonds Revenge
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 4 · OR 47
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 4f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼1
Strength69%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-07-09 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-04-12 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 68/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength78%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 22/11/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 08/03/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 29/03/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 12/04/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |
| 05/06/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 14/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/09/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |