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3

Intention To Zip

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 3 · OR 52

Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 4f 110y

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼2
Strength88%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: +1.6
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Charles Town 24/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 48 · 4f110y Fas 120 · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 48 par24/10C9OR 48C9 @ Charles Town 06/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 47 · 4f110y 122 · beat its mark06/11/2025 · OR 47 parC6 @ Charles Town 14/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 42 · 4f110y Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/02/2026 · OR 42 par14/02C6OR 42C6 @ Charles Town 08/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 43 · 4f110y 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/03/2026 · OR 43 parC6 @ Charles Town 29/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 45 · 4f110y 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/03/2026 · OR 45 par29/03C6OR 45C6 @ Charles Town 19/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 49 · 4f110y 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/04/2026 · OR 49 parC5 @ Charles Town 09/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 53 · 4f110y Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 53 par9/05C5OR 53C5 @ Charles Town 05/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 57 · 4f110y Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 57 parC8 @ Charles Town 05/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 54 · 4f110y Slo 124 · below its mark05/07/2026 · OR 54 par5/07C8OR 54projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-05Charles Town?6th6th0
2026-06-05Charles Town?7th4th+3
2026-05-09Charles Town?6th3rd+3
2026-04-19Charles Town?1st-1th+2
2026-03-29Charles Town?3rd1st+2
2026-03-08Charles Town?2nd0th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/108/039/055/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 3-5 · tight 76/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength54%

Delivery trend -4.1% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/10/20254th12/137%57%+0.20
06/11/20252nd6/168%80%+0.12
14/02/20266th33/10%17%+0.17
08/03/20262nd6/168%80%+0.12
29/03/20263rd15/261%50%-0.11
19/04/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
09/05/20266th25/10%17%+0.17
05/06/20267th25/10%0%0.00
05/07/20266th12/137%0%-0.37