1
Monkey Wrench
7yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 1 · OR 47
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 4f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 59/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength67%
Delivery trend +5.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 11/10/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 22/11/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/03/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 12/03/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 29/03/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 12/04/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 09/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |