2
Mr Mahomes
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 2 · OR 55
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 4f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 68/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▲
Strength86%
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/12/2025 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 23/01/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 13/02/2026 | 1st | 1/16 | 100% | 100% | +0.00 |
| 29/03/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 12/04/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 24/04/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 10/05/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 12/06/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 02/08/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 43% | -0.40 |